澳洲作业代写：2017年欧元政策和趋势。本文是分析欧洲央行自2017年9月至今的欧元政策和趋势。欧元汇率、欧元面临的威胁、实力平价等问题将与AA-DD模型等经济理论和概念进行讨论。截至2017年9月26日，德国大选的胜利预计会对欧元产生影响。首先，德国选举产生了一个三方联合政府，削弱了政党对权力的控制。市场陷入不稳定状态,因此欧元下降了约5%(相对于英镑)自9月初(电报金融服务4)。在同一个月也预计,欧元的下降但是不会是永久性的它的价值将得到改善。接下来澳洲作业代写将为同学们分析讨论下2017年欧元政策和趋势。
此外，早在今年6月和7月，欧元的更高水平也计划在9月和2018年晚些时候实现。预测了“锥形效应”。市场预期欧洲央行将在9月宣布大幅放缓资产购买步伐，但缩减效应要到2018年才会开始。紧缩对欧元的影响基本上是央行为稳定物价而实施的量化宽松计划。7月，欧元大幅升值。
欧元走高，在那几个月里，有人担心欧元会突然升值，就连欧洲央行行长马里奥·德拉吉(Mario Draghi)也在新闻发布会上被问及欧元升值及相关担忧。德拉吉说,“这是真的有债券价格的变动,资产价格、汇率等等,但融资环境仍然支持”(豪斯6)。当时,它被认为是更多的绿色光激发购买行为的市场囤积欧元。然而，这种削减效应，或量化宽松计划，使欧元恢复快速增长，以更好的稳定性，可以理解为欧洲央行的计划，以遏制快速增长。截至2017年，作为量化宽松计划的一部分，欧洲央行正在购买价值约600亿欧元的债券，以注入大量现金刺激增长，推高价格，并创建2%的通胀目标。这将控制欧元的增长。根据最新消息，缩减购债规模的日期可能会推迟一些，以适应欧元的升值。缩减规模也可能低于预期。
美联储一直专注于实施这些紧缩效应。如果这一步做得太快，那么欧元区国家的利率就会上升。欧元本身会在短时间内变得非常高，这可能会破坏欧元区的稳定。另一方面，如果这些安排进展缓慢，那么欧元区内部的通胀将会超过2%的计划目标。因此，欧洲央行计划从9月开始放慢购买资产的步伐，目标是将每月购买减少到150 – 200亿欧元左右。这使得美元与美元、英镑、英镑和其他著名货币的比价明显更高。一些风险与欧洲央行在这方面的努力有关，特别是因为许多国家和国际国家预计缩减规模会更大，但欧洲央行可能会采取更短的缩减规模，以延长该计划的时间。
As of September 26, 2017, the German election win was expected to have an impact on the Euro. Primarily, the German election resulted in a three-way coalition government that weakened party hold on power. The market was thrown into an unstable state and as a result the Euro fell by approximately 5 percent (as compared to the Sterling) since the beginning of September (The Telegraph Financial Services 4). In the same month it was also projected that the decline of the Euro would however not be permanent its value was expected to improve.
Additionally, as early as in June and July of this year, the higher levels of the Euro also came with a planned setting for September and later 2018. A tapering effect was predicted. It was market expectation that the ECB would announce a much slower pace in asset purchases as of September, but the taper effect would start only in 2018. The tapering effect for the Euro is basically a plan by the central bank to quantitatively ease down for price stability. In July, there was a significant appreciation of the Euro.
It shot higher and there were concerns raised as to the sudden rise of the Euro in those months, and even the ECB President Mario Draghi was asked about the rise and associated concerns in a press briefing. Draghi stated then that “It’s true there have been movements in bond price, asset price, exchange rates and so on, but financing conditions remain supportive” (Howes 6). At that time, it was considered as more of a green light to motivate purchase behavior of markets that were stocking up on the Euro. However, this tapering effect, or the quantitative easing program to bring back the fast growth of the Euro to better stability can be understood as something ECB is planning for in order to check the fast growth. Central bank as of 2017 is buying around €60BN worth of bonds as part of the quantitative easing program in order to inject the amount of cash for stimulating growth and pushing prices and to create inflation target of 2 percent. This would control the growth of the Euro. Date of tapering as of current news could be pushed back a bit in order to accommodate the rising Euro. The taper amount could also be smaller than what was expected.
The central bank has been focused on conducting these tapering effects. If this was done too fast, then the interest rates in the Euro nations would go higher. The Euro itself would become very high within a short span of time and this could potentially destabilize the Eurozone. On the other hand, if the arrangements were done in a slow manner, then it would so follow that there would be inflation surges within the zones that go beyond the planned 2 percent target. Therefore, the central bank has planned to go ahead with a slower pace when it comes to asset purchases as of September and aim to bring down the monthly purchases to around €15–20 billion. This makes the dollar have a noticeably higher parity value when it comes to the US dollar, pound, sterling and other notable currencies. Some risks are associated with ECBs efforts here, especially since many of the national and international countries expect the taper amount to be larger, but ECB might go with a shorter one in order extend the program for longer.
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